全球经济不平衡的实质在于，少数最先进国家凭借知识、创意和发达的服务业牢牢占领着经济金融的制高点。综合竞争力最强的国家，同时也是负债最多的国家。然而，绝大多数发展中国家仍然受困于资本短缺。这正是此次金融危机的根源。

在日益激烈的国际竞争中，成本、工资和地租的差异越来越让位于人力资本、市场条件、法治环境和生态状况等因素的区别。因此，国际竞争很大程度上是一国自己与自己的竞争。例如，中国需要提高服务业比重，降低制造业比重，而印度却正好相反；德国和日本需要从缺乏竞争力的工业生产中退出，新兴市场经济体正好有条件承接；美国和英国需要向更先进的非物质生产主导的经济类型转变。

除了不同之外，在2011年各国还面临着许多相同的课题。例如，我们共有一个地球，需要共同应对生态危机和能源危机；发展中国家的城市化，发达国家的再城市化，可以互相借鉴；各国都有自己的教育问题，可以取长补短；就业更是大家共同的经济难题，能够相互学习交流。如果传统的政治、安全和意识形态观念能够被超越，我们就会创造空前的共赢。

变革必将到来

在社会、资源和环境方面付出巨大代价的条件下，中国长期保持着很高的储蓄率和投资率，而且在最近一些年里已经成为最大的资本净流出国家。中国无疑必须调整经济结构，强化人力资本，减少环境损毁，使增长建立在技术进步和制度创新的基础上。这意味着经常项目顺差的相对规模会逐步缩小。尽管如此，中国在不久的将来很有可能会超过日本而成为最大的债权国，正如其实物资本存量早晚会赶上美国一样。

对于中国不断增长的金融力量，国际上一直不无担忧。有人甚至怀疑它会被用于政治或军事目的。事实上中国外汇资产的存量和结构，特别是央行储备占据70％的份额，在极大程度上是被动形成的。中国需要从国外进口更多先进技术和设备，引进更多人才和经验，开展更高层次的跨国研发合作；中国的企业愿意携带着自己的产品、技术和资金去亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲任何国家；印度、巴西、东欧和俄罗斯实际上都迫切需要中国的基础设施建设能力；甚至北美、西欧和澳洲也有许多矿山、工厂和农场也欢迎中国投资者去增加投入。遗憾的是，由于种种有形和无形的束缚，数以千亿美元计的中国资本未能直接用于改进世界的效率和福利。

自由兑换，打造共赢

立人才能立己。中国是投资和贸易自由化最坚定的支持者，也是世界经济金融重建最富建设性的力量。中国与世界银行及其他区域性开发银行之间，在协调融资和投资方面存在着很大潜力。金融市场的双向开放会进一步扩大，目前海外投资者在中国金融业的权益已占15％左右，中国的银行和保险公司也愿意逐步拓展国际市场。

中国完全可能更积极地参与国际货币金融体系改革，支持跨国监管交流，建立和完善世界性的最后贷款人制度。在此过程中，人们会发现，合力推动人民币成为国际货币，对于解决现阶段困扰国际社会的金融和贸易难题，具有实质性的意义。

附：原文：China's balancing hand

The crux of the current global imbalance is that only a minority of the most advanced countries possess the knowledge, innovation and flourishing service sectors that will enable them to enjoy strong economic and financial prospects. These same countries are also the world’s largest debtors. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of developing countries suffer a shortage of capital. This, at root, is the origin of the recent financial crisis.

In increasingly tense international competition, differences in costs, wages and land prices are becoming less important than factors such as human capital, the law, market regulation and the environment. For this reason, international competition is to a large extent a country’s competition with itself. For example, China must raise the service sector’s share of the economy and lower that of manufacturing, while for India the reverse will be true.

Others, too, must change. Germany and Japan need to cede to the emerging economies industries in which they are no longer competitive. America and Britain need to move their economies still further into sophisticated services.

But apart from their differences, countries in 2011 will face many common issues: we have only one Earth and we need to cope together with the crises of energy and the environment; with urbanisation in the developing world and reurbanisation in the developed world. Every country has its own problems of education and all could help resolve them by learning from each other; employment, too, is a common economic challenge and countries could pool their experience. If we can transcend traditional concepts of politics, security and ideology, we should be able to create unprecedented opportunities that benefit the many and not just the few.

Times must change

By paying huge prices in social, resource and environmental terms, China has sustained very high savings and investment rates for a long period. In recent years it has become the world’s largest net capital exporter. China undoubtedly must adjust its economic structure, strengthen its human capital and reduce its environmental impact so that its growth can be built on technological advancement and institutional innovation. This implies a gradual shrinking of the relative size of its current-account surplus. Yet, even so, China will probably surpass Japan as the largest creditor in the near future, just as its physical capital stock will sooner or later catch up with that of the United States.

There has been no lack of fear around the world about the relentless growth of China’s financial strength. Some believe my country will use this power to further its political or military ends. But the fact is that to a large extent the stock and portfolio of China’s foreign-currency assets are formed passively, particularly the 70% share in central-bank reserves.

China needs to import more advanced technology and equipment from abroad, bring in more talent and experience and co-operate in transnational R&D. Chinese enterprises are willing to take their products, technology and capital to any country—and India, Brazil, eastern Europe and Russia are all in urgent need of China’s capability in infrastructure construction. In North America, western Europe and Australia, there are many mines, factories and farms which would welcome funds from Chinese investors. What is regrettable is that, owing to tangible and intangible constraints of one kind or another, hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese capital cannot be used directly to improve world efficiency and welfare.

Free exchange for everyone’s good

“You cannot get yourself established unless you help others to get established,” as the Chinese saying goes. China is a staunch supporter of liberalisation in investment and trade and is also a constructive force in global economic and financial restructuring. There is great potential to be had with China co-ordinating financing and investments with the World Bank and other regional development banks. The two-directional opening of its financial market will widen further, given that overseas investors currently have about 15% of the equity of China’s financial sector and given that Chinese banks and insurance companies are willing to make staged forays into the global market.

It is entirely possible for China to participate more actively in the reform of international financial systems, in 2011, in support of transnational regulatory exchanges and in setting up and improving a system serving as the global lender of last resort. During this process, it will be discovered that jointly promoting the yuan as an international, fully convertible currency will help greatly to solve financial and trade problems of the kind that now vex the world.